INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES
Capstone’s Investment Committee meets monthly to review the latest market happenings and economic trends, while discussing where they may be headed. Periodically, our Chief Investment Officer summarizes our latest thinking into the following Investment Perspectives to help clients stay up to date on what’s happening in the markets and the economy, what our current outlook is, and our ideas about investing and portfolio management.
The outcome of the U.S. elections could influence policy changes in areas such as taxes, trade, and regulation. In our latest investment perspective, we examine the potential market implications and what investors should keep in mind as election day approaches.
The Fed will likely continue its wait-and-see approach until it observes consistent signs of cooling inflation. In our latest investment perspective, we discuss whether the economy will eventually enter a recession if interest rates remain unchanged for longer.
The commercial real estate market has undergone a significant downturn and sentiment towards it is extremely negative. In our latest investment perspective, we discuss the current state of the real estate asset class and what may lie ahead for it.
The U.S. presidential election will no doubt capture the headlines in 2024 and create uncertainty. We discuss how investors should approach investing in an election year.
Geopolitical risk has risen with the recent tragic attack on Israel. The implications, especially from a humanitarian perspective of this event, are vast and devastating, as are many of the political repercussions that will follow. In our latest investment perspective, we discuss how war in the Middle East could impact the broader markets and the economy, and portfolio considerations for investors.
There has been increasing interest in how the prospects of AI may be boosting stock market performance, particularly for a handful of the largest technology companies. In our latest investment perspective, we discuss whether one should change their investment portfolio to benefit more from the generative AI growth trend.
The clock is once again ticking on U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. As deadlines draw nearer, the political theater and dramatic media reporting will likely continue to intensify. We provide some historical perspectives and explain what investors should expect this time around.
In March, the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and ensuing news about other banks contributed to uncertainty and market turmoil. In our latest investment perspective, we discuss the potential longer-term implications of this event and what it could mean for investors going forward.
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023? In our latest investment perspective, we provide our updated outlook and discuss how it informs our recommendations for positioning portfolios going forward.
It continues to be a challenging year for investors, even those with diversified portfolios. Our latest investment perspective provides our updated outlook and explains why long-term investors should stay on course, particularly amid a period of heightened uncertainty and market volatility.
Recent market declines have been painful, and risks abound for the economy as central banks attempt to slow activity without causing a severe recession. We provide our updated outlook and answer the question of whether now is a good time to invest.
The Federal Reserve is demonstrating a strong commitment to controlling inflation by aggressively raising interest rates. We provide insight into the Fed’s current action plan and compare it to the 1970s and 1980s stagflation period.
The U.S. stock market has entered "bear market territory" by declining more than 20% from recent highs. Amid a volatile run for stocks and speculation surrounding a potential economic recession, we explore whether more market losses should be expected.
Global investors face a challenging market environment, with expectations of higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war. We outline ways that investors should position portfolios for above-trend inflation and rising interest rates over the next few years.
Here are our latest perspectives about the evolving situation in Ukraine, including what’s going on in the markets, our updated near-term outlook, some historical perspective around events like this, and our recommendations for portfolio positioning.
If you’ve been wondering whether individual stocks and cryptocurrencies deserve a larger place in your portfolio this year, you’ll want to read our latest investment perspective. We provide our 2022 outlook for the markets, economy, and inflation.
Inflation and activity in Washington D.C. are running hot these days. In our latest investment perspective, we provide an updated outlook on inflation. We also discuss why Congressional agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling is important, what could occur if the threat of default grew, and what investors should do in the meantime.
Many goods and service prices have surged in recent months, causing a spike in inflation to levels not seen since the early 1990s. The Federal Reserve believes that the recent rise in prices is temporary and should normalize soon. But what if the Fed is wrong? We outline what investors should consider to help them hedge inflation risk in their portfolios.
It has been over a year since the last time we experienced a significant stock market decline. For many, this long and nearly uninterrupted winning streak raises concerns that a major decline is forthcoming. We outline a few ways to help you survive and even thrive in the inevitable volatility to come.
To start 2021, investors can breathe a sigh of relief. The contentious U.S. election (and inauguration) are behind us, COVID-19 vaccines have arrived, and the U.K. finally approved its post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union. Although we have overcome big hurdles, we are not yet in the clear.
The markets have been driven by the economic improvement that has already occurred and optimism about the potential for further improvement in economic activity down the road. This is part of the reason why the stock market rally is believable.
The year 2020 has already shaped up to be a year that we will never forget. On top of everything that has happened this year, it is hard to believe that in a matter of weeks, a U.S. presidential election will take place.
A large portion of the U.S. stock market today is concentrated in a handful of stocks. The technology companies included in these top stocks are drawing attention for their perceived sway on the market as a whole. This has led to some concern among investors that such a small group of stocks having such a heavy influence on performance may mean that there is more risk in the market than usual.
Over the last several weeks, stocks have rallied to erase most of this year's losses. The optimism in the stock market has been at odds with economic data signaling that the pace of the global economic recovery following the coronavirus pandemic is likely to be slow and uneven.
Activity being deliberately frozen and halted has forced consumers, businesses, and investors to change the way they live and operate for a considerable period. This leads to the question of whether consumer, corporate, and investor behavior will change permanently.
At the moment, we are operating in what is probably the noisiest market that many investors have ever seen. Market moves and government actions that seemed unthinkable a few weeks ago are now daily occurrences. Currently, there is not a lot of visibility on the trajectory of Covid-19 and the breadth and depth of its impact.
These are certainly trying times. It goes without saying that the COVID-19 virus has had an enormous impact on the way we all go about our daily lives. We first want to say that we hope every one of you is safe and healthy.
A lot has happened since our last commentary several days ago. The coronavirus has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. The speed at which the Covid-19 disease is spreading has led authorities (on national and community levels) to take strong measures including closing borders, schools, and businesses, as the center of the pandemic shifts to Europe and the U.S.
Financial market volatility has reached levels not seen since the global financial crises in 2008. The severe market turmoil has been due to concerns about the significant drop in business activity and global trade from escalating efforts by public-health authorities worldwide to contain the coronavirus outbreak.
After such a strong year for stocks with the U.S. stock market once again reaching new all-time highs, many investors are wondering whether they should stay invested. A common concern is that the stock market is likely to come back down from such a high current level, especially given the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, Middle East tensions, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
MARKET AND ECONOMIC REVIEWS
Capstone monitors the key market and economic indicators to stay current on conditions and trends. Periodically, the team convenes to review and discuss these indicators in depth. These presentations provide our insight and interpretation of the most important indicators we track.
Global stocks advanced in the third quarter, while bonds rallied on falling interest. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what happened last quarter in the markets and provide our year-end market outlook.
Stock market gains continued, and bond market returns inched higher in the second quarter. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what happened last quarter in the markets and provide our updated market outlook.
Stock markets continued rallying and bond markets took a breather in the first quarter. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what happened last quarter in the markets and provide our updated market outlook.
Global stock and bond markets rallied significantly in 2023. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what happened last year in the markets and provide our 2024 market outlook.
Stock and bond markets broadly declined in the third quarter amid the continued rise in interest rates. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what’s happening lately in the markets and provide an updated market outlook.
Stock markets extended their gains during the second quarter, while bond markets were mixed. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what’s happening lately in the markets and provide an updated market outlook.
After material declines in 2022, stocks and bonds posted gains during the first quarter. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what’s happening lately in the markets and provide an updated market outlook.
2022 was a tumultuous year, characterized by geopolitical tensions, interest rate hikes, and inflation concerns across regions, resulting in significant losses across asset classes - a rare occurrence historically. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what happened last year in the markets and provide an updated market outlook.
What at first looked like a turnaround quarter for the markets took a turn for the worse. In our latest research presentation, we take a detailed look at what’s happening lately in the markets and provide an updated market outlook.
Stocks and bonds worldwide broadly posted negative returns through the end of the second quarter. In our latest research presentation we take a detailed look at what’s happening lately in the markets.
After an exceptionally calm 2021, we’ve seen a return to a more normal (higher) level of volatility in stock markets so far in 2022. Bonds sustained their worst quarterly decline in decades as the markets reset expectations for how quickly the Federal Reserve and other central banks will raise interest rates.
Strong earnings, economic growth, and easy financial conditions all favored risk-based assets which delivered high returns in 2021. On the other hand, fixed income bond assets were challenged (low to slightly negative returns) amid rising interest rates and inflation, while cash earned nearly-zero return.
A September sell-off dampened third-quarter returns for global stocks, and bond returns were flat amid a late-quarter surge in rates. Despite increased volatility, stocks are likely to move higher into 2022. Interest rates are set to rise, but at a modest pace, and will still remain relatively low.
How is the economy doing several months into the pandemic? Recent data suggest that the U.S. recovery has decelerated; however, we are still seeing gradual improvement across most indicators we track.
In the short-term, most property types and markets may face noteworthy declines in asking rents and meaningful increases in vacancy rates due to decline in economic activity, but these effects are more likely cyclical than structural or permanent. In the long-term, Capstone’s outlook is either positive or neutral on most commercial real estate sectors.
What recent market and economic data is telling us about slowing global growth and uncertainty around trade. Bonds outperforming stocks over the last year, reinforcing their importance in balanced portfolios.
What recent market and economic data is telling us about the looming global economic and earnings growth slowdown amid interest rate increases. 2018 year-end stock market route. The U.S. treasury yield curve nearing inversion.
What recent market and economic data is telling us about how geopolitical uncertainty has been the major headwind for stocks, despite accelerating corporate earnings and robust economic growth.
What recent market and economic data is telling us about how growth broadened across all major countries around the world in 2017. The best year for global stock market returns since 2013, and the lowest volatility since 1972.
What recent market and economic data is telling us about how despite the U.S. economy entering into its eighth year of expansion, growth remains slow and steady. International stocks starting to outperform U.S. stocks - the start of a long-term trend?
What recent market and economic data is telling us about the health of U.S. service sectors compared to manufacturing sectors. The strength of the U.S. job market. Consumer confidence reaching a 14-year high.
Disclosures
Please remember that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, including the loss of money invested. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, including the investments or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Capstone Financial Advisors, Inc. (“Capstone”) will be profitable. Definitions ofany indices listed herein are available upon request. Please remember to contact Capstone if there are any changes in your personal or financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing our previous recommendations and services, or if you wish to impose, add, or modify any reasonable restrictions to our investment management services. This article is not a substitute for personalized advice from Capstone and nothing contained in this presentation is intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, securities, or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. Investment decisions should always be based on the investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. This article is current only as of the date on which it was sent. The statements and opinions expressed are, however, subject to change without notice based on market and other conditions and may differ from opinions expressed by other businesses and activities of Capstone. Descriptions of Capstone’s process and strategies are based on general practice, and we may make exceptions in specific cases. A copy of our current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for your review upon request.